Usual suspects not leading the way, finds analyst

Traditional early adopters have been left behind in the take up of IPTV, which is based on different factors in every country, according to an industry analyst.

IPTV over fixed-line internet services has blossomed in France, Hong Kong and Spain, but the US is in ninth position and the UK is not even in the top 10.

"For a new technology and a new service this is quite unusual," said Ian Keene, a vice president and chief analyst at Gartner. "It is not the usual bunch of countries leading and the usual bunch of countries following."

Gartner's figures for the whole of 2006 suggest that France led the way with 1.55 million subscribers, followed by Hong Kong with 876,000, Spain with 380,000 and the US with 207,000.

"Who would have guessed a year or so ago that these are the top countries by fixed-line IPTV subscriptions?" Keene said. "It is quite a mixture, which goes to show that it is dependent on country conditions."

The analyst explained that the success of IPTV in any given country depends on a number of factors, including the availability of broadband internet access and differing copyright laws for content running over an IP network.

Other factors include the presence of a population historically bought in to pay-TV, and whether premium content had already been locked in by other broadcasters.

"It is also very important to look at the competitive environment," said Keene. "How many cable and satellite operators are there? Are they successful?"

This could explain the poor take up of IPTV in the UK, according to the analyst. Sky and Virgin Media are firmly established in the region, while BT Vision has only just started to pick up subscribers.

"The UK is conspicuous by its absence in terms of the number of subscribers because companies like BT have simply tried to take on the likes of Sky which will never work," said Steve Broadhead, director of Broadband-Testing.

"It has got to be completely personalised content that the user controls, whether on a mobile, a regular TV screen or anywhere."

Although Keene did not release the latest figures, he claimed that there had been some changes in the first half of 2007.

"There have been some carriers in some countries that have been accelerating their services, while some other IPTV service providers have slowed down," he said.

However, Keene is adamant that IPTV viewers have barely scratched the surface of the overall television audience.

"Even though numbers are building up, they are minuscule compared to the number of people watching broadcast TV," he said.