IDC expects 10 per cent growth in demand
Microsoft's long series of delays to the launch of Windows Vista will have only limited impact on global demand for new PCs, industry analysts predicted today.
Following another strong performance in the fourth quarter, growth in the PC market is expected to slow slightly to just over 10 per cent for the next few years, according to the latest forecast from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
The recent delay in the release schedule for Microsoft's Vista is expected to have a "limited impact" on overall PC shipment volumes.
IDC already expected growth to slow notably in 2006 following a wave of replacement purchases and portable adoption, so the installed base is relatively fresh.
Commercial users are expected to give Microsoft's new operating system a thorough review before beginning any migration, although the consumer market should see a more immediate impact.
"Some consumers will certainly delay PC purchases until Vista is available, but we expect the delay to shift only moderate volumes from the fourth quarter of 2006 into 2007 and will not cause a loss of sales," explained Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
"The timing of the release will have some impact on when consumers buy, but not so much on whether or not they buy.
"In addition, we expect Microsoft and PC manufacturers to adjust their marketing and upgrade options to appeal to consumers in the fourth quarter even though Vista will not be ready.
"Instead of a dramatic effect on PC shipment volumes, the delay will probably have a larger impact on PC vendors' and Microsoft's marketing efforts that will need to be adjusted to fit the release schedule. This will add complexity and cost."
Although IDC predicts relatively strong growth of 10 per cent for global PC sales, this is notably below the growth of more than 15 per cent for the past two years and will bring growth in shipment values to below five per cent.
IDC continues to believe that the market will slow in most regions during 2006, most notably in Western Europe, Japan and 'Rest of World', although total worldwide growth is expected to be at least 10.5 per cent through 2008.
This is slightly more optimistic than IDC's November 2005 forecast, which predicted growth to slip below 10 per cent starting in 2007.
The analyst's update reflects a shift of growth from 2006 to 2007 that combines the influence of stronger commercial spending in 2007 with a larger response to Microsoft's Vista release and related developments around digital integration.
Short term expectations for the US and Japan were lowered slightly, while the outlook in Europe has improved to reflect continuing portable adoption and a more gradual decline in growth.
Overall, worldwide shipments of PCs are projected to grow by 10.5 per cent in 2006 and 10.7 per cent in 2007, compared to November projections of 10.6 per cent and 8.9 per cent, respectively.
Total shipment volume is expected to reach 254 million in 2007 at a value of $232bn.
"The prevailing wind driving US PC market growth continues to be consumers and the passage of desktops to portables as their dominant computing platform," said Richard Shim, an IDC senior research analyst for personal computing.
"Declining prices, improving performance and battery life, and widescreen displays in notebooks are luring new buyers and upgrades, while stunting desktop PC growth to a trickle.
"This surge is contributing to the pace of overall notebook adoption and is likely to bring closer the day that notebooks out-ship desktops in the US."
Microsoft's long series of delays to the launch of Windows Vista will have only limited impact on global demand for new PCs, industry analysts predicted today.
Following another strong performance in the fourth quarter, growth in the PC market is expected to slow slightly to just over 10 per cent for the next few years, according to the latest forecast from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
The recent delay in the release schedule for Microsoft's Vista is expected to have a "limited impact" on overall PC shipment volumes.
IDC already expected growth to slow notably in 2006 following a wave of replacement purchases and portable adoption, so the installed base is relatively fresh.
Commercial users are expected to give Microsoft's new operating system a thorough review before beginning any migration, although the consumer market should see a more immediate impact.
"Some consumers will certainly delay PC purchases until Vista is available, but we expect the delay to shift only moderate volumes from the fourth quarter of 2006 into 2007 and will not cause a loss of sales," explained Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
"The timing of the release will have some impact on when consumers buy, but not so much on whether or not they buy.
"In addition, we expect Microsoft and PC manufacturers to adjust their marketing and upgrade options to appeal to consumers in the fourth quarter even though Vista will not be ready.
"Instead of a dramatic effect on PC shipment volumes, the delay will probably have a larger impact on PC vendors' and Microsoft's marketing efforts that will need to be adjusted to fit the release schedule. This will add complexity and cost."
Although IDC predicts relatively strong growth of 10 per cent for global PC sales, this is notably below the growth of more than 15 per cent for the past two years and will bring growth in shipment values to below five per cent.
IDC continues to believe that the market will slow in most regions during 2006, most notably in Western Europe, Japan and 'Rest of World', although total worldwide growth is expected to be at least 10.5 per cent through 2008.
This is slightly more optimistic than IDC's November 2005 forecast, which predicted growth to slip below 10 per cent starting in 2007.
The analyst's update reflects a shift of growth from 2006 to 2007 that combines the influence of stronger commercial spending in 2007 with a larger response to Microsoft's Vista release and related developments around digital integration.
Short term expectations for the US and Japan were lowered slightly, while the outlook in Europe has improved to reflect continuing portable adoption and a more gradual decline in growth.
Overall, worldwide shipments of PCs are projected to grow by 10.5 per cent in 2006 and 10.7 per cent in 2007, compared to November projections of 10.6 per cent and 8.9 per cent, respectively.
Total shipment volume is expected to reach 254 million in 2007 at a value of $232bn.
"The prevailing wind driving US PC market growth continues to be consumers and the passage of desktops to portables as their dominant computing platform," said Richard Shim, an IDC senior research analyst for personal computing.
"Declining prices, improving performance and battery life, and widescreen displays in notebooks are luring new buyers and upgrades, while stunting desktop PC growth to a trickle.
"This surge is contributing to the pace of overall notebook adoption and is likely to bring closer the day that notebooks out-ship desktops in the US."
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